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BCS Championship Game Free Pick
Money Keeps Rolling in on Texas but ‘Bama Should Still Cover
Game-day: 1/7/2009
Kick-off: 8:35 pm EST
By Aidan Yarborough
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The money keeps rolling in on the Texas Longhorns in the BCS National Championship Game.
The college bowl lines opened at Alabama -5 or -5 ½ in most NCAAF sportsbooks. At one point, the odds in a few sportsbooks went up to ‘Bama -6, but then the betting line quickly changed course.
With two days to go before the big game, Alabama is now a 3 ½ point favorite in most sportsbooks. The totals have stayed relatively stagnant at between 44 ½ to 45 ½.
What should gamblers take from this 2 point line change? Absolutely nothing. Unless a huge injury in the next two days compromises the Crimson Tide, this game still looks like a victory for the Tide against the spread.
Below are the reasons why.
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Alabama Had a Tougher Schedule: The argument now is that Nebraska, who rocked Arizona 33 to 0 in the Holiday Bowl, is better than any other team in the SEC outside of Florida and Alabama.
Okay, maybe that’s true, but one victory against the Cornhuskers doesn’t make up for the fact that Texas played patsies during the regular season. Last year’s Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford played sparingly in the Longhorns ballyhooed Red River Rivalry game against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State was without wide receiver Dez Bryant when the Longhorns beat them in that game.
Alabama beat Kentucky, Mississippi, LSU, Tennessee, South Carolina, Auburn and Florida. They opened the season with a 10 point victory over Virginia Tech. That means that the Crimson Tide is battle tested.
Nick Saban is Alabama’s Coach: Saban’s record in bowl games, 4 and 6, isn’t stellar, but nobody can claim that the man doesn’t know what to do with a talented team and Alabama is a talented team. In three years at Alabama, Saban has gone 7 and 6, 12 and 2 and now 13 and 0. He also coached the Crimson Tide to a lopsided victory over the #1 Florida Gators in the SEC Championship Game.
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Saban took LSU, an SEC team, into the Sugar Bowl ranked #2 in the nation against the #1 ranked Oklahoma Sooners and promptly coached the Tigers to a BCS Title in 2003.
Perhaps Saban’s biggest influence over the Tide is that he believes in a balanced attack and a great defense. That goes against the grain in college football as most teams have employed a spread offense.
Texas Has No Running Game: Speaking of the spread offense, the Texas Longhorns have no running game. Okay, maybe that isn’t correct. They have a running game when Colt McCoy, their awesome QB, can take off and run down the field, but other than McCoy, Texas just doesn’t really run the ball that well.
Yes, their average per game on the ground is over 150 yards, but that was due to some huge games by McCoy against a few lousy defenses. Against Nebraska, the Longhorns ran for 18 yards on 38 carries.
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Alabama’s Defense is As Good as Nebraska’s: Yes, the Cornhuskers looked awesome in that Holiday Bowl victory and in the Big 12 Championship, but Alabama’s defense is just as good if not better. The Crimson Tide shut down a Florida offense that was averaging 35.9 points per game and made Tim Tebow play the worst game of his career. As good as Colt McCoy is rushing the ball, he’s no Tim Tebow. Also, McCoy doesn’t really have the weapons that Tebow has as Texas’s top running back, Tre’ Newton, rushed for only 490 yards during the regular season and Jordan Shipley, McCoy’s top wide receiver, is only 6’0” and weights 184 pounds. ‘Bama’s cornerbacks and safeties should push Shipley around all night long.
‘Bama’s D could dominate in this game.
‘Bama’s Greg McElroy is Playing the Best Football of His Life: The stats don’t show it, but Greg McElroy has been absolutely fantastic running Nick Saban’s offense for the Crimson Tide the past few games. In the last five Alabama games, McElroy has thrown for 8 touchdowns and 1 interception. His average completion percentage in those games is 63.4. McElroy may not have the overall stats that McCoy does, but he’s as good or better of an in game manager than McCoy.
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Why is this important? Because although the Longhorns give up only 62.3 yards per game on the ground, and will most likely keep ‘Bama RB Mark Ingram from gaining 100 yards, the Crimson Tide can lean on McElroy to get them into the end zone. A balanced attack is a huge advantage over the Texas Longhorns.
Don’t get me wrong, Texas is a terrific team. They obviously belong in the BCS National Championship Game, but the Alabama Crimson Tide is a great team. The Tide should roll in the championship game on Thursday night and cover the 3 ½ point spread.