2010 Sugar Bowl Odds

Sickly Meyer Leads Florida into the Sugar Bowl Against Coachless Cincinnati

Game-night:  1/1/2010

Kick-off:  8:30 pm EST

By Aidan Yarborough

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The BCS Bowl Committee must be kicking themselves.  Three teams finished undefeated outside of Texas and Alabama at the end of the 2009 NCAAF regular season:  Boise State, TCU and Cincinnati.  TCU versus Florida would have been an exciting game because the Horned Frogs have a sound defense.

But Cincinnati got the bid to play Florida in the Sugar Bowl and will do so on Friday night.  By taking the Bearcats, the BCS wanted to see how Cincinnati with the hottest coach in college football, Brian Kelly, stood up against the terrific Gators and the most successful coach in college football, Urban Meyer.

A lot has transpired since the game was set, however.  First, Kelly took the job with Notre Dame and won’t be on the sidelines on Friday night.  The Cincy Bearcats will be coached by Butch Jones, not Brian Kelly. 

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There was a strange incident that occurred in Florida is well.  Coach Urban Meyer didn’t exactly leave the Gators…well, he did, but then he came back.  Meyer’s announced just last week that because of health reasons he was stepping down as the head coach of the Gators after the Sugar Bowl.  Then, the following day he recanted by saying that he was just “taking a leave of absence” after the Sugar Bowl.

In any case, Meyer will be on the sidelines when Florida takes the field in the Sugar Bowl.  His presence gives the Gators a decided advantage over the Brian Kelly less Bearcats.

Here are the college bowl odds for this game.

Cincinnati Bearcats            +12 ½ -110        O 57 ½ -110

Florida Gators                -12 ½ -110        U 57 ½ -110

Here are a few online wagering trends for this game.

The Cincinnati Bearcats are 1 and 5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.

The Cincinnati Bearcats are 1 and 6 against the spread in their last 7 bowl games.

The Florida Gators are 7 and 2 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS loss.

The Florida Gators are 20 and 6 ATS versus a team with a winning record.

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Up until Florida’s alarming loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship game, alarming because the Crimson Tide dominated the Gators, the men from Gainesville were considered the best team in the nation.

The biggest reason for Florida’s meltdown in the SEC Championship was the fact that they couldn’t pressure ‘Bama QB Greg McElroy and couldn’t stop the run.  With Carlos Dunlop, their talented defensive end, back from suspension in the Sugar Bowl, expect the Gators to put tons of pressure on Cincy QB Tony Pike in this game.

Cincy’s offense averages close to 40 points per game but that was against Big East teams.  The Florida Gators are a much stronger team than the Bearcats have faced all season and even though the Gators expected to be in the BCS Championship, they shouldn’t have an issue dominating the Bearcats.

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Cincinnati had trouble beating Connecticut, West Virginia and Pittsburgh and went 0 and 4 ATS in their last 4 games.  They’re without their head coach and don’t have the type of team to play smash mouth football the way that ‘Bama did in order to beat up the Gators defense.

On offense, the Gators will rely heavily on QB Tim Tebow.  The Sugar Bowl will be Tebow’s final game in a Florida uniform.  Expect Tim to go all out in this one and dominate Cincinnati’s soft defense, that gives up 20.8 points and 141.6 rushing yards per game on average, from the opening kick-off.

Florida should roll in this game with Dunlop back, Meyer coaching his final game for maybe a while, who knows what he’s really thinking, and Tebow suiting up for the Gators for the final time.

Oh, yes, the lack of Brian Kelly’s terrific play-calling on the sidelines is going to hurt Cincinnati as well.

Florida all the way in this one.

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