College Football Free Picks - The Emerald Bowl

Boston College Eagles (8-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) vs. USC Trojans (8-4 SU, 3-9 ATS)
Saturday, December 26 - 8 PM ET
By Aidan Yarborough

NCAA Football Betting Odds:  USC -7, Total 44

Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* BC has won four of its last six games SU
* BC has played four of its last five games UNDER the total
* USC has covered one of its last seven games
* USC has won 18 of its last 22 games SU

As we analyze our NCAA bowl prediction, all of a sudden, the USC running game, which was unbelievably deep at the beginning of the season, may be thinning out. Stafon Johnson, as you know, suffered an injury lifting weights and wound up in severe condition in the hospital. Allen Bradford (596 yards) has hurt his ankle and may not be 100% if he's in the game, and Joe McKnight is now the subject of an investigation due to his improper use of an SUV provided by a marketing representative, which is all USC needs since they are already being investigated for improprieties regarding the recruitment of basketball player OJ Mayo. McKnight (1014 yards) did not make the trip to San Francisco, and his status is very much in doubt.

Bet On College Bowl Games NOW! Click Here!

So is USC's ability to run the ball on a consistent basis against the Boston College defensive front, which is the strength of the team, allowing only three yards per carry this season.

To win in this NCAA bowl prediction, it might put a little more burden on freshman quarterback Matt Barkley than Carroll intended. Barkley, who had a storied high school career and was ranked by many as a #1 recruit, became the first true freshman to start at QB for this program, and he's had a rocky time of it, with 12 interceptions to go with his 13 TD passes. This defense bore no resemblance whatsoever to last year's unit, allowing 36 points to Oregon State, 47 to Oregon and 55 in the infamous loss to Stanford.

Away from Chestnut Hill, the Eagles did not excel, averaging just 14 points a game, so it is a question mark as to how they will handle the trip west. The first two road tests, against Clemson and Virginia Tech, produced a TOTAL of 217 yards. They did a little better since then, with the development of Dave Shinskie at quarterback and the emergence of sophomore running back Montel Harris (1356 yards). Still, this is not a team that is going to explode on anyone. Shinskie has just a 14-13 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions, and completed only 53%.

Bet On College Bowl Games NOW! Click Here!

USC has superior personnel, but also has to have a rather ho-hum attitude as it is regarding this minor bowl game, since the Trojans have played in a New Year's bowl every season since 2002. In fact, Emerald Bowl officials were so concerned about it that they had to petition Pete Carroll for his full commitment to the game, whatever that is supposed to mean. The Trojans have failed to cover the last six times they have played in a bowl game that took place outside of the new year, and Boston College has won eight of its last nine bowls.

The better play might be the total on this one, but for purposes of today's discussion, we're going with the Eagles plus the seven points in our BetUS NCAA bowl predictions.

AIDANS'S PLAY:  BOSTON COLLEGE +7 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

Bet On College Bowl Games NOW! Click Here!